This Really Was Not A Drill

Close your eyes for a moment and just picture the scenario.

It's around 8 in the morning, and you're in bed. Your kids are running around like the little lunatics that they are. You're stirring back into the land of the living and, during this, you notice that your phone has buzzed. You pick it up and, to your absolutely astonishment, these words are the only things you see:

BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO YOUR LOCATION. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.

You also hear strange noises coming from downstairs. Your kids, or perhaps your partner, has turned on the television and some scary sounding shrieks are coming from it. Then a long beep. You can hear someone talking, but you can't make it out. You get up, run downstairs, and see a very similar message to the one on your phone flash on a ticker tape across the top of the screen.

You know you have about 19 minutes from now before you and your family are potentially vaporized into atoms by a bright light. 

What do you do?

Well, sadly, on Saturday morning, at 8:07am local time, this is the conundrum the people of Hawaii found themselves in. An emergency alert, sent in error, went out to the island's mobile phones, TV stations and radio outlets, caused 38 minutes of chaos, terror and confusion among the islands residents.

Students at the University of Hawaii attempted to enter the Cold War fallout shelters on campus, only to find them locked. Their only salvation, a room in the Marine Sciences building. 

Parents and neighbours were helping their children into storm drains to try and protect them from the nuclear holocaust that would follow, families huddled in rooms praying to God to save them from the death and destruction that would inevitably follow.

It took nearly 40 minutes for the news of a false alarm to take hold. A false alarm email was sent to everyone, but, everyone was preparing for the end. So, 20 minutes later, the Hawaii State Defence Department sent a false alarm tweet, defusing the panic that gripped the island.

In the ensuing 40 minutes, it's hard to imagine the terror that the people of Hawaii faced, especially in the light of it being a false alarm, an accident. What must parents have been thinking? Young lovers, perhaps even people who were getting married that day? (That's common in Hawaii). It's something hard to imagine, let alone whether or not you want to.

So, why is this event important? Why is it being talked about in America so much?

The answer is, worryingly, simple.

An argument can be made that we are now in a brand new nuclear age, not too dissimilar from Cold War thinking. Two powers who brag about their nuclear capability, trade insults or slights against the others country, and have a real readiness to use their nuclear arsenal if things go too far. While there were clearly cooler heads during the Cold War, the presence of a despotic figure obsessed with his nuclear button and the damage it could do if used and his counterpart, Kim Jong-un, mean that cooler heads may not prevail. With North Korea's continued testing and Trump's 'Fire and Fury' style comments, the possibility of an accidental conflict of some kind becomes worryingly more likely. 

Of course, accidental conflicts have nearly occurred in the past, this is not a new thing. In September 1983, the Soviet defence system went online showing 3 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles inbound from the United States. This caused a lot of panic in the USSR Nuclear Defence Facility but, thanks to a man named Stanislav Petrov, crisis was averted. Petrov's instruction not to fire back turned out to be the right decision given that the 'missiles' was actually sunlight, being picked up by a malfunctioning Soviet satellite. 

Even as recently as 1995, Russian President Boris Yeltsin was asked whether he wanted to send nuclear missiles to the United States after their defence system, again, picked up something coming in from the US. (It was, in fact, a weather rocket launched by American and Norwegian scientists. The message alerting the Russians to this was not reached by the correct authorities).

So, what's new here exactly? Why are we discussing the idea of an accidental war again?

Well, as I've said, we have two complete nutters in charge of two nuclear armed countries. And, unfortunately for the state of Hawaii, they're caught exactly in the middle of this shit. 

With the 2017 war of words between Kim and Trump, the idea that one comment may push the other over the edge is not a crazy idea. The North Korean regime are already telling their people to get into a state of war readiness against the American 'bastards', calling Trump's words an act of war, so it makes sense, under that viewpoint, that an accidental conflict could occur.

Also, let's not forget that Hawaii has not been the first place to have a recent nuclear panic. In August, the residents of Hokkaido island in Japan woke up to the news that a missile was actually flying over their heads, and needed to get to shelter immediately. Similar feelings were felt in Japan when North Korea tested a non-nuclear missile over Japan, causing international condemnation. Hawaii are now part of a depressingly exclusive club. The difference being, is that Japan is not necessarily a North Korean target, whereas the United States firmly is in terms of nuclear capacity. 

Also, the last time that the state of Hawaii last heard the words 'this is not a drill', was December 7th 1941, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour. Given this, it's easy for the state's population to come to expect an attack of some kind from the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

So, what does Hawaii teach us?

It teaches us a number of things. 

Firstly, it teaches us that this shit could actually kick off at any moment. Given 2017, America is on edge. Especially those who are in a confirmed proximity to North Korea. Last year, we saw Kim threaten the US territory of Guam, which had the world on tender-hooks for most of August. But, realistically, Hawaii had no reason whatsoever to believe that this wasn't real. That's the scariest thing. If 2017's escalation hadn't happened, many Hawaiians may have been more skeptical about the emergency alert. But given the past 12 months of the Trump Presidency, and the countries he's managed to successfully piss off, the possibility is scarily real. But it does prove one thing. Would we know what to do in that situation? Hawaii have taken it upon themselves to tell their residents what to do in that situation so, they have some alarming preparation. As for tourists? They might not be as knowledgeable.

Secondly, the flow of information. Most Hawaiians looking for clarity looked to, yes, Twitter. In the confusion, Hawaii looked to Twitter to see what was really going on in between getting the alert and coming to terms with their mortality. But information, in this information, was also confusing. As an unfortunate part of the Emergency Alert System in Hawaii, the television broadcast that accompanies an alert explains to people that the US Pacific Command has detected a missile, regardless of the circumstances. Now, this wasn't true. But, as we've already said, people probably believed it wholeheartedly. Especially given that previous missile tests by North Korea have ended up in the Pacific Ocean. But it does say a lot when the most reliable source of information for people in the face of certain death and apocalypse is...Twitter. 

I saw someone say on Twitter last night 'this is what happens when the nuclear age meets the digital age', and this is exactly right. During the Cold War, this kind of panic wouldn't have happened unless it was a real attack. Nowadays, we can get alerts on our iPhones, tablets, anywhere. So the chances of this kind of thing happening has grown. Of course, hackers could probably cause a storm if they decide to replicate this in another place, but the fact we have more access to information than ever before, it means that panic can ensue as a result of an accident like this. Hawaii, beautiful though it is, was a comparatively sober location for this to occur, not that it should've happened in the first place. My point is, what could've happened if this event occurred in a large city like Los Angeles, New York City, Washington DC or something? (Though, Trump was playing golf at the time in Florida. He probably would've taken action if the state of Florida was in trouble). The Americans should perhaps think about how information is consumed nowadays and how that can be utilized for future events. If Twitter is how people choose to find information in the event of the apocalypse, then that should be a wake up call to Emergency Planners across the nation. 

Thirdly, it shows that accidents can happen. We talk about accidents happening at the diplomatic level, but this happened at the state level. The civilian level. Human fallibility is a thing but it is widely ignored, and that's perhaps more dangerous than an actual nuclear attack itself. Is it better to suffer a nuclear attack under the pretense of an actual, long standing conflict, or because of an accident? We, as a species, need to recognise that accidents happen more than we like to let on and, they can be devastating given the context. This was an accident, but was easily rectified (even if it was handled extremely badly by the US state defence and the political elite in Washington). But it was still an accident that could've been avoided. We need to recognise that these accidents happen and they can happen at any point. Nothing is fool proof. 

So, what would you do? 

This was not a drill for many reasons. While it can be an experience we can look at positively to an extent, it was unnecessary. But it sends a message to the world that we need to be ready for anything at any time. 

Scary as that sounds, that is the world now. Whether we like it or not. 

For more comments, funny takes on the news and for more links to this absurdly opinionated opinion blog, feel free to follow me on Twitter at @MrFrampuccino

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Up to you.